On the other hand, the overall trend of the new energy industry continues to improve.The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high in 2021. The organization predicts that the sales volume is expected to exceed 5 million vehicles in 2022, and the penetration rate will exceed 20%; On the other hand,the price of upstream raw materials has reached new highs. Battery grade lithium carbonate,as the cathode material of battery, has continued to rise since 2021. Its average price exceeded 500000 / ton in March 2022, an increase of nearly 70% over the beginning of the year.
The soaring price of lithium carbonate has also triggered a series of shocks in the industry. From the"battery shortage" intensively reported by the media last year; By this year, many auto companies have announced price increases and even suspended orders in order to stop losses; Recently, it is rumored that Ning de and BYD will no longer purchase lithium carbonate and resist price increases.
It can be said that the supply of raw materials has affected the development pattern of the whole lithium battery industry. The tail enterprises with low bargaining power have to face the risk of elimination at the bottom, while the head enterprises are under cost pressure to seek a balance between ensuring supply and capacity expansion.Left hand capacity expansion，and right hand hoarding lithium ore. Since the beginning of 2021, in the face of the booming and promising lithium battery market, the capacity planning of power battery enterprises has been significantly accelerated.By the end of 2021, the (incomplete)statistics of capacity planning of each power battery enterprise are as follows:
CATL 670GWh in 2025
BYD 600GWh IN 2025
LGENSOL 430GWh in 2025
Gotion High-Tech 300GWh in 2025
CALB 500GWh in 2025
SVOLT 600GWh in 2025
EVE 200GWh in 2023
SUNWODA 140GWh in 2025
LISHEN 100GWh in 2025.
In the coming era of TWh, 100GWh has become the basic unit of capacity in the lithium battery industry.
As a reference, the total installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2021 is 154.5GWh.Based on the consumption of 500 tons of lithium carbonate per 1GWh, 50000 tons of lithium carbonate are required for every 100GWh of production capacity. Relevant data predict that China's lithium carbonate output will be about 280000 tons of LCE in 2022, and the supporting capacity is less than 600GWh.
When the current situation of rising raw material prices and shortages can be improved needs further observation. The long- term development of the enterprise is inseparable from the timely layout of upstrea and downstream.The future pattern of lithium battery industry remains to be seen......